Expert predictions for 2003

Ian Perry

IAN PERRY, housing spokesman for the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors

The headline grabbing figures of massive price falls coming up are just not right. We think the market will continue to grow very strongly for the next 12 months, possibly the next two years. There is still so much momentum that people do not want to get left behind so it will not just stop and crash. 1988 was an artificial, unnatural boom followed by a spectacular crash but this boom has not been the same thing at all as it was market led. We are still expecting prices to rise nationally by 11% overall which is a welcome slowing down but still three times the rate of inflation. But within each region there will be big variations with some areas rising more than that and some less or not at all. Manchester city centre has absolutely boomed and when a market cools it is usually the areas that went highest fastest that cool first. But it will be a slowing down - not a crash.

Andrew Frankish

We are very upbeat about the coming year and the first three months will be the crucial indicator. But we still have loads of clients we approved mortgages for last year who have not been able to find properties and who will be actively looking again now so we know serious buyers are still out there. And people who last reviewed their finances six months ago will probably find that their own property has increased in value and they have more equity to put down on their next house. We lend slightly more to new buyers simply because they are the ones who find it hardest to get a start and because builders have been charging top rates for new houses which often attract first timers. But, to be honest, we want prices to level out now.

SIR HOWARD BERNSTEIN, chief executive Manchester City Council

If we keep away from daft schemes and ones that are overpriced there is no reason why the residential sector in Manchester city centre should not continue to grow. The market is fragile and we do not want developers to get their fingers burned on schemes that do not sell so confidence is lost. At the moment the market is maturing and we continue to look at ways of diversifying what is available with schemes like Red Bank, which will provide more affordable accommodation for a wider market and New Islington which will be a step change in providing family accommodation. The city has significant responsibility to make it all work. We have to provide the social infrastructure and that is easier as we expand the boundaries of the city but perhaps not so easy in the core areas. The next couple of years will be critical to us reaching a city centre population of 15,000.

ANDREW BROWN, managing director of Linden Homes

2002 was a super year for us and we expect more of the same in 2003. Certainly our new-build programme in and around the Cheshire belt is very hectic and we have new developments planned for Nantwich, Sale, Chester, Wilmslow, Cheadle, Lymm and Hale. These areas tend to be desirable locations and because of this we expect prices to continue to rise. There is still a definite desire for people to move out of the urban areas and into what they consider to be `greener' areas of the region. Linden's policy of building on brownfield land does not deter us from developing quality homes in these sought after locations and because we are always creative and innovative we are very confident in the market this year.

WILLIAM YOUNG, sales director Wilson Connolly

It is always difficult to predict the market. However, every indication is that 2003 will be just as buoyant as the previous few years. I believe prices will continue to rise but not at the same levels we have seen in 2001 and 2002. Certainly Wilson Connolly's new-build plans for the year are very busy with eight new developments being looked after from our Wigan office and further new developments coming from the Warrington office.

Wilson Connolly tend to build in the mid - executive price range including apartments, town houses, detached properties and mews. Our new-build plans include a good mix of accommodation at all price levels and we are not concentrating on one property type over another, which indicates that the market will remain buoyant across all levels.

The Greater Manchester suburbs will continue to remain popular and despite the gloomy predictions for the city centre, we are still extremely pleased with sales at Mercury Buildings and Ducie Wharf in the city centre.

If you get product, price and location right, people will continue to want to move to new properties."

CLARE PEARSON, sales and marketing manager ICIAN

Last year saw excellent sales within the city centre and new developments have not only improved the general perception of Manchester but increased the number of people wanting to live here. This year we anticipate the same trend with people from the south of England buying properties in Manchester not only as an investment but also to live in. Interest rates look set to stay low and stable which only helps the market.

Lawrence Copeland

This is going to be a crucial year for the city centre. There has been a tremendous amount of building and while buyers are still around some developers are starting to do deals to get sales. And there could be major problems with over supply in the £40,000-£200,000 price bracket. There is too much that is very much the same: same spec, same style, same price and anyone who has bought in that price range hoping to make a quick killing may have to think again. Prices for the middle market will stabilise first. And some of the Irish investors who bought into schemes are now trying to sell before they are completed. What there is demand for are the sub-£100,000 apartments. At Trinity Riverside you can still get a two-bedroom flat for £85,000 and that is where the price increases will come. As for the top end, who knows, but I cannot see Manchester having a £2m property this year.

JAN BARCOCK, sales manager with Knight Frank, Manchester

No way have we reached saturation point in the city yet! We are still getting huge numbers of calls and a growth in the number of people who want to buy in bulk, particularly since the Commonwealth Games, which helped Manchester's profile phenomenally. Ancoats will be the next big thing. You only have to look at the amount of investment being ploughed in the area and all the key players are involved around there. All the pieces are in place and it is the area of the city, which will see the most dramatic change over the next five years. You may have to have courage to invest your money here but those who do will see a good return.

NICHOLAS HITCHEN, of Weale and Hitchen Estate Agents of Bury, Ramsbottom, Bolton

Fortunately, we do not get the wild price swings our Southern cousins enjoy and endure. I think there will have to be some adjustment but the market will slow and not crash - unless all these dramatic media headlines become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We expect last year's very buoyant market to continue and January is usually a good indicator, setting the mood of the market for the year. People still feel prosperous, interest rates are still low, they still want to move and property remains scarce. All those things mean the market will stay strong.

KEN EWEN, sales director for Bellway Manchester

We had a phenomenal year in Manchester in 2002 and we are expecting more of the same this year. Yes a lot of apartments are coming on line but the interest remains very high with sales in December incredibly strong. And we do not see it coming to an end. Bellway has a big commitment in the city and we are extremely positive about future developments with several deals on more significant plots of land in the pipeline.

Julie Westby

Yes 2002 was an amazing year but there will always be consistent demand for good houses in the right areas. What last year showed us was the absolute need to achieve the best price we could for a house because vendors often underestimated how much their next one was going to be. Last year 32% of buyers were local, 40% regional but 27% were national, showing that Cheshire is now viewed as one of the best areas in the country to live. As for 2003, I do not think much will change. Wilmslow will retain its status, Macclesfield is coming on but the places that will perhaps boom this year are Nantwich and Sandbach as the commuter belt is pushed out.

JULIE WESTBY, president of the National Association of Estate Agents

We reopened last week after the Christmas and New Year break but really need not have bothered. We were incredibly quiet and when I rang round other agents in the region they were the same. Some stayed shut, like many solicitors firms which was probably right. I did one valuation but the phone hardly rang.

In the past we have hit the decks running after the holiday and expected the same this year but it hasn't happened. Maybe people were still away or in holiday mode. But despite the slow start and the recent doom and gloom reports I do not think there is going to be a slump.

Prices will be steadier than last year but we will still see rises of between 10% and 15%.